We Know ... But (New Zealand Edition)

All the talk this week has been about the Breakers, and many of the experts have tipped Mody Maor's men to cause an upset against the all-conquering Kings. 

But how do they get it done? How do they take three games from Sydney? 

Ahead of Game 1 of the Championship Series on Friday night, NBL.com.au's Pete Hooley provides his analysis. 

RELATED: We Know ... But (Sydney Edition)

We know they’re great at...
Defence. The Breakers have been the barometer of an elite defensive team all season long and it’s no surprise when you look back at some of the initial press conference from Mody Maor when he took over the head coaching role. 

Across the NBL23 season, New Zealand was hardest team to score against, allowing just 80 points per game. When you look back at the recent history of the NBL, three of the four top teams in each season have allowed around that magic number of 80 points per game. One of the Breakers' main secrets to their success has been the ability to protect the rim against teams that enjoy driving the ball. Dererk Pardon is an elite rim protector down low, not just with blocks but the ability to just alter shots with his length and timing.

In the regular season this matchup was coined as an 'immovable object versus an unstoppable force'. One of the league’s quickest teams on the offensive end against one who likes to use their physicality to really grind games out. 

Dererk Pardon. 

So what will give?
Notoriously in the league as a whole, any team that relies strongly on their defensive identity usually has a lot of success. When it comes to the post-season, it usually goes that way more than usual and that would heavily favour the Breakers and their physical presence. In two of the three meetings against Sydney, the Breakers gave up 77 points and 81, which is significantly lower than the normal offensive output from the Kings. 

In the regular season the Breakers led the league in fouls per game at 20.5, which is really no surprise when you go back and watch the way they went about it with their physicality. That physicality will be tested with the pace of the Kings and how they test team’s pressure at the rim.

Mody Maor has built a strong defensive unit. 

How will they limit the MVP?
Well, the Breakers are probably in the best position to throw a bunch of different looks at Xavier Cooks, depending how they want to attack the league MVP. Initially there is Jarrell Brantley, who has been one of the best power forwards across the NBL on both ends of the floor. Brantley’s strength comes in his size in terms of keeping opposition big men out of the paint, while still being quick enough to shuffle his feet and stay in front. 

Then there’s the option to use one of the league’s finalists for Best Defensive Player, Dererk Pardon. Pardon does his best defensive work under the rim and in ball screen action, so there could be a gamble to have him guard Cooks who likes to get the ball on the perimeter. 

Another potential suitor would be the ever-versatile Tom Abercrombie, who has quickly become one of the best shutdown wing defenders. He will likely start on DJ Vasiljevic and try to keep him quiet, but Maor has the ace up his sleeve to use Abercrombie’s speed and length to play on Cooks. 

Jarrell Brantley. 

Who is the key?
It’s easy to look at this New Zealand squad and think that Barry Brown Jr or Jarrell Brantley are the keys to their success. However, if you look deeper into the way this team operates, everything revolves around what Will McDowell-White does at the point-guard position. McDowell-White is the engine room for a team which has been hot and cold at times offensively. His ability to pick apart defences in the ball screen is what has made him one of the best true point-guards around. 

Shutting down McDowell-White was a major point of emphasis from the JackJumpers in the recent series and it proved to be key, especially in game two.

McDowell-White averaged 10 points, five rebounds and six assists throughotu the regular season. He does a bit of everything, but what he really excels as it the way he sees the floor. If the Breakers want to dethrone the Kings, McDowell-White will have to control the show.

Will McDowell-White.

Unleash the beast
Barry Brown Jr has been as electrifying as they come off the bench for New Zealand. The dynamic guard averaged 19.7 points per game at almost 47 per cent from the field. He has had his recent struggles with a hand injury, but that hasn’t slowed down his game all that much. When the Breakers need a bucket, they turn to Brown Jr, who has delivered time and time again. New Zealand are only fifth in terms of offensive rating, so it’s imperative that Brown Jr can find a way to score the ball and tick the scoreboard over against the offensive firepower of Sydney. 

Barry Brown Jr. 

What to watch for
Perhaps the most intriguing battle of them all will come between the two head coaches. Both men, Maor and Chase Buford, aren’t afraid to try unusual lineups or tactics to see what works, and if this series goes to five games as many expect, that chess game will exciting to watch.

Will the Breakers stick to their guns and grind it out against Sydney? Or will they try to match the speed of play and beat the Kings at their own game? 

Mody Maor.